Winter Storm Watch

**imported_elp6n** · February 26th, 2008, 03:53 PM

Right now the forecast isn't living up to its prediction...
we're not even seeing rain anymore.

**NotSoSilentBob** · February 26th, 2008, 04:19 PM

Going to take a great deal of heavy snow to overcome the high ground temperatures.

51* in Coeburn at the moment.

**beamer_ball** · February 26th, 2008, 04:20 PM

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: elp6n</div><div class="ubbcode-body">Right now the forecast isn't living up to its prediction...</div></div>

How is that?

**imported_elp6n** · February 26th, 2008, 04:33 PM

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Quote:</div><div class="ubbcode-body">we're not even seeing rain anymore. </div></div>
because it's not even raining anymore! [img]/LDPforum/ubbthreads/images/%%GRAEMLIN_URL%%/laugh.gif[/img]
rain to snow was the forecast. It's less overcast too. No thunderstorms.

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Quote:</div><div class="ubbcode-body">RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.</div></div>

**beamer_ball** · February 26th, 2008, 05:03 PM

Yeah, and the forecast has been right....so far.

The discussions give more detail. I don't think people fully understand the forecasts or read them correctly, which goes back to the snowfall forecast deal.

AFD's...
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.php?...n=1&glossary=1

**NotSoSilentBob** · February 26th, 2008, 05:05 PM

Temperature is dropping. Once the cold front passes, the temperatures should start falling. Down 6* in Coeburn since 3PM already.

That said, I don't see us getting 6-8" out of this event. We never get that much from wrap-around. 2-3" of light powder at most.

http://www.wunderground.com/US/Regio...st/Fronts.html

**imported_elp6n** · February 26th, 2008, 05:12 PM

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: beamerball</div><div class="ubbcode-body">Yeah, and the forecast has been right....so far.
</div></div>
Sitting here in Norton VA, we're not seeing what the forecast said we'd be seeing (rain and/or thunderstorms turning to snow by late afternoon). Sure it may come later but the original doom and gloom forecast has fizzled. We saw rain this morning and it quit before noon.

**pvfan** · February 26th, 2008, 05:27 PM

Temperature has dropped about 10 degrees here in Wise, down to 41.

**steer** · February 26th, 2008, 05:33 PM

yeah, it's dropping fast, and I've seen drizzles of rain all day. I don't think it'll be a bad snow, until later on tonight.. maybe around 7 or 8, it might start coming down..

**beamer_ball** · February 26th, 2008, 06:05 PM

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: elp6n</div><div class="ubbcode-body"><div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Quote:</div><div class="ubbcode-body">we're not even seeing rain anymore. </div></div>
because it's not even raining anymore! [img]/LDPforum/ubbthreads/images/%%GRAEMLIN_URL%%/laugh.gif[/img]
rain to snow was the forecast. It's less overcast too. No thunderstorms.

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Quote:</div><div class="ubbcode-body">RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.</div></div> </div></div>

I can see how that could be taken. I think others were putting a little differently. Breaking that one down, probably would be like..."Rain showers and a few thunderstorms early in the afternoon". Keeping in mind it's a area forecast, still a wide area, some thunderstorms were present earlier across the area (had one myself) and there was rain this morning and around noon-early afternoon throughout the area (some places saw it stop earlier, some later..it's not street level). The front pushed through after taking much of the moisture with it. Now, there are still rain showers lingering around (NWS has a 30% chance of showers this afternoon, which is pretty accurate for the area) and will increase later as we await things to come together, which should be snow showers. The forecast has been pretty much right on for the area, so far. That one particular forecast you posted though is a little different, and I can see the way it's worded how that one could be seen differently. Some others were a little better. More detailed forecasts are supposed to be delivered by TV meteorologists and in the NWS Area forecast discussions anyway, although the latter can be difficult to understand at first though.

Some of the change over times could be a little late or early (probably already gone over for some), but still pretty close either way and about as good as one could do, haha.